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Old     (boarditup)      Join Date: Jan 2004       05-22-2008, 6:48 AM Reply   
From the UK Telegraph - when you get to the bottom of the story, the real analysis emerges:

"The US added just 7pc of crude demand growth from 2004 to 2007, compared with 34pc for China, 25pc for the Middle East and 17pc for emerging Asia.

Goldman Sachs argues that fuel prices in most of these countries are held down by state controls, insulating demand from the effect of any global downturn.

But this could change. Egypt - the most populous Arab country - has just raised petrol prices by 40pc. Rumours swept China yesterday that Beijing was preparing to lift fuel prices. While the Chinese government is unlikely to risk protests in the lead up to the Olympics, the jitters are a reminder that Asian states will have to take action sooner or later to wean their societies from subsidies.


Almost all emerging nations have to slam on the brakes in coming months to curb inflation before it starts spiralling out of control. Inflation has hit 30pc in Ukraine, 22pc in Vietnam, 8.5pc in China, and double digits across most of the Gulf.

The countries that account for the most of the growth in oil demand over the last two years are almost all nearing the limits of easy economic growth."

So - the interferance from the governments is what is causing this mess. Right now, we have calls for more meddling from the US Congress in the affairs of energy supply. Give me a break - they have messed up nearly everything they have ever tried to do.
Old     (dabell)      Join Date: Apr 2007       05-22-2008, 7:00 AM Reply   
Interesting but gas isn't going to come down anytime soon. Heck, the price per barrel just hit $135. :-(
Old     (hal2814)      Join Date: Feb 2006       05-22-2008, 7:01 AM Reply   
Come on, Karl. What about the government price controls on gas? That really worked :-) Too bad we just happened to have a massive shortage right after it. I don't know why that happened. That was really bad luck.

There's no one "what is causing this mess." There's a perfect storm of situations that add up to rapid increase in price but governments keeping demand high by subsidizing cost is certainly a factor that shouldn't be ignored.
Old     (greenspirit_hydro)      Join Date: May 2007       05-22-2008, 9:58 AM Reply   
I just parked my 06 4 Runner and 1976 Bronco and bought a Specialized Rock Hopper bicycle. I haven't driven in three days and I feel free! That is the only way prices are going to come down. Less demand means lower prices.
Old     (kyle_m)      Join Date: Aug 2007       05-22-2008, 10:02 AM Reply   
better idea if your gunna wanna drive get a vespa or a yamaha zuma approx. 4 dollars to fill and they get you about 125 miles great for gettin around town and there fun to ride around on
Old     (guido)      Join Date: Jul 2002       05-22-2008, 10:22 AM Reply   
Ross.... absolutely.

I've been riding my bike to work a couple days a week. It feels great. Plus I'm getting into great shape and it's completely stress free (unlike sitting in traffic).

I've also parked my Diesel truck and drive my car that gets a few more MPG's and costs 60 cents a gallon less to fill. When I don't need to haul anything I'm riding my motorcycle. I've even been thinking of picking up a more city oriented bicycle with some fenders and panniers so I can go grocery shopping by bike, too.

I fully agree.. The only way prices are going to go down is when demand drops. The days of the SUV are in their twilight.
Old     (liquidmx)      Join Date: Jun 2005       05-22-2008, 10:35 AM Reply   
Unfortunately even if we dropped demand here it wouldnt make a large impact as it is a global economy related to oil. China, India, and other countries are consuming at such high rates if we wont buy the oil other countries will resulting in a relatively small impact. At least that is according to most CNBC analysts and the WSJ.

Anyone else catch the article about synthetic airline fuels in the WSJ yesterday, pretty interesting stuff.
Old     (kinger)      Join Date: Jun 2007       05-22-2008, 10:55 AM Reply   
Actually if you lower our demand it may raise the price of oil. Why? Because the less oil shipped, higher cost of shipping. Also the lower the demand the tougher for oil companies to meet their bottom line and then they squeeze the middle man and then they hit us. Lower American demand higher availability for Brazil ( they latest country on the move to super development). The only way IMO would be regulation, like they did for electricity and some other commodities. I don't know how to fix the problem but I do know America lowering their demand won't fix it.
Old     (ponte_06_x2)      Join Date: Jan 2006       05-22-2008, 11:08 AM Reply   
maybe if they made a 5 billion dollar profit instead of a ten billion dollar profit. they might be able to help the people of the world out. its has nothing to do with demand or how much they do or dont pump a day or us needing more refineries. its all about greed. hands down bottom line. why do they do it, because they can. oil companies, banks and the pill popping companies can do as they please because our people in power are all paid for.
Old     (mobv)      Join Date: Jun 2002       05-22-2008, 11:20 AM Reply   
Supply and demand have little to do with the current situation. Do a search on crude oil futures speculaton. Here is an experpt from one report.

The price of crude oil today is not made according to any traditional relation of supply to demand. It’s controlled by an elaborate financial market system as well as by the four major Anglo-American oil companies. As much as 60% of today’s crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds. It has nothing to do with the convenient myths of Peak Oil. It has to do with control of oil and its price. How?
Old     (bbr)      Join Date: Apr 2002       05-22-2008, 11:24 AM Reply   
Ross, the sad thing however is that demand HAS been coming down, and we have more gas in reserves than ever before, yet prices continue to rise.

Everyone blames it on supply and demand, but as George pointed out, it realy has nothing to do with it.
Old     (mobv)      Join Date: Jun 2002       05-22-2008, 11:29 AM Reply   
I read today that if the oil companies eliminated all of their profit from the price of gas it would reduce $.09 / gallon. Doesn't seem like much help. Yeah, $10 billion is alot of money but it is spread over alot of gallons of gas. Eliminating profit from the oil companies isn't the answer.
Old     (ponte_06_x2)      Join Date: Jan 2006       05-22-2008, 11:52 AM Reply   
9 cents thats it. its hard for me to believe that
Old     (psudy)      Join Date: Dec 2003       05-22-2008, 12:04 PM Reply   
"better idea if your gunna wanna drive get a vespa or a yamaha zuma approx"

Mopeds are like ___ Chicks. They are fun to ride until your friends see you with them.
Old     (chpthril)      Join Date: Oct 2007       05-22-2008, 12:05 PM Reply   
Gas Prices - Coming Down

Not in my hood!
Old     (trdon)      Join Date: Sep 2007       05-22-2008, 1:41 PM Reply   
Mopeds are like ___ Chicks. They are fun to ride until your friends see you with them.


In this day and age with gas prices, more people will be looking with envy than ridicule.
Old     (jon4pres)      Join Date: May 2004       05-22-2008, 1:59 PM Reply   
Gas went up in my hood today too.

I find 9 cents hard to believe as well. The state tax is probably more than 9 cents a gallon.
Old     (peterslc)      Join Date: Sep 2002       05-22-2008, 2:06 PM Reply   
It has more to do with our dollar tanking than anything. Too bad the national media fails to mention that, even though everyone else around the world is dumping the dollar. The dollar as dropped some 60% in value in 5 years vs the Euro. Why does no one want to blame it on our own government and the FED? Everyone needs to open their eyes. Our economy isn't getting better any time soon, esp with the current, and soon to be, administration.

This should go in another thread, but looks like my trips to the lake will start to dwindle fast.
Old     (rico80)      Join Date: Aug 2002       05-22-2008, 2:17 PM Reply   
George is partially right about gas prices, the dramatic increases are largely speculative, but they are speculative because people are starting to fear that Peak Oil has been reached, that supply will not keep up with demand. To date, peak oil occured in 2005 at 73.8 million barr/day, in 2007 it was down to 73.2. That's not to say true "Peak oil" has been reached just that we are producing less than we had in 2005. So supply is down, a little. Demand has grown, a little, 1% from 84.9m to 85.7m bl/day. China had the biggest increase of 5.5% from 7.3m to 7.7m bl/day. The US has been relatively flat for a few years now at 20.7m bl/day.
If you didn't notice, the US is almost 25% of the world's oil consumption, us using less might help things, a little.

Oil companies have very little, if anything to do with the increase in oil prices. Taxing them, blaming them, punishing them will do nothing. They merely benefit, sort of, from the higher prices. I say "sort of" because it will hurt them in the long run as people start consuming less and looking for other forms of fuel. They do not want rapid price increases like we are seeing, it makes no sense for them to.
They do benefit in the short term with the high prices = record profits but they are realizing this is (relatively) short term. That is why, all those billions in profits are being used to buy back stock, not invest in exploration or new refineries. They realize America's consumption will go down, how would that make any sense to build new ones then. They don't invest in new reserves because they are getting harder to find, harder to retrieve, and therefore less profitable. The cost to produce a barrel of oil has risen from $20 ten years ago to $70-80 now, it's just that much harder to get it, clean it, etc. It is more beneficial to the shareholder to give it back, basically saying "we have no place to invest this to make you more money, so here take it back, put it somewhere else. We'll buy back shares so that our stock price increases."

So to summarize, Not oil companies fault, not China's fault, not OPEC's fault. No it does not follow supply and demand precisely, it follows speculative supply and demand. Basically if you want to figure out why gas prices have risen, draw a little pie chart or stacked bar graph. Add a little for demand increases, a little for supply decreases, a nice chunk for higher costs, a nice chunk for speculation do to the unknowns in the industry (how well supply will meet with demand). The other large chunk that most of you, and most in gov't are neglecting, is INFLATION. If oil is traded in dollars, and dollars are declining in value, while the value of oil is increasing in value, won't it take more dollars to get a barrel of oil. The dollar has fallen almost 50% against the Euro in 8 years, so throw that in your little chart as well.
Hope this explains some things so we can do less finger pointing and focus on wakeboarding, at least in this forum.
Old     (hal2814)      Join Date: Feb 2006       05-22-2008, 2:19 PM Reply   
9 cents isn't that hard to believe.

The world produces about 31 billion barrels of oil per year. The oil industry made about $155 billion in profits over in 2007. $155 billion / 31 billion is about $5 per barrel or (given 42 gallons in a barrel) $.12 per gallon.

Assuming dropping the price of crude linearly affects the price of refined gasoline, you're looking at $.12 at best.

Sources:

A barrel = 42 gallons: http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/whats_in_barrel_oil.html

Oil industry profit review for 2007: http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/103679.pdf

85 million barrels per day (85m * 365 = 31b):
http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/14/news/economy/peak_oil/index.htm
Old     (doug2)      Join Date: Jan 2004       05-22-2008, 2:58 PM Reply   
Not sure how accurate his numbers are, but Boone Pickens made a very simple point yesterday on CNBC. The world demands 87 million barrels a day, but right now is only producing 85 million. Nothing to do with a weak dollar, just simple economics.

These numbers are off considerably from JB's post, but do seem to jibe with what is happening. Demand outstripping supply.

Last time I checked, taxes accounted for 45% of my cost at the pump.
Old     (rico80)      Join Date: Aug 2002       05-22-2008, 2:59 PM Reply   
LP, Thank you, I'm glad someone else gets it. I must have been typing my lengthy response while you snuck yours in there. I thought I was going crazy in that I was the only sane person in the world who saw what was really happening.
Feel free to challenge my numbers since I didn't source any of them. They are just a compilation of things I heard/read, numbers seem to stick with me pretty well, I just can't remember where I got them. I agree that the supply side of things seems rather low.

Doug H. where did you get 45%, I had never heard that. I know in Ohio fuel tax is 44.6 cents/gallon, and I suppose there are other taxes as well, just surprising that they are so much. I don't think you can blame taxes either though. They are either fixed per gallon or go up proportionately with the actual increase.

(Message edited by rico80 on May 22, 2008)
Old     (doug2)      Join Date: Jan 2004       05-22-2008, 3:11 PM Reply   
JB-

I was way off. I guess it must be a fixed per gallon deal since it has dropped significantly. (what I get for going off old info)

Here is where I get my info from (your tax dollars at work)-
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp

Does anybody know how the gas tax actually works?
Old     (mobv)      Join Date: Jun 2002       05-22-2008, 3:26 PM Reply   
It's not all supply and demand. Some say the weak dollar is a major contributor and others say it is speculation similar to the Enron impact on electricity in CA a couple years back. Here is a quote from one of the Senate energy members.

"A major contributor [to high oil prices] is the rise in speculation," said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich, who estimated that speculation has added about $35 to a barrel of oil. "This is not a supply and demand issue."
Old     (kinger)      Join Date: Jun 2007       05-22-2008, 3:27 PM Reply   
If it has to do w/ the dollar tanking then why is gas still $10 a gallon in Europe? The Euro is worth more dollars? It is the tax and profit thats raising prices. Gov, is not going to change tax so they should regulate the profit. The dollar is just an scape goat for oil companies and the government.
Do the research, read the trending
Old     (peterslc)      Join Date: Sep 2002       05-22-2008, 3:42 PM Reply   
Never believe a thing you hear on CNBC, or any national media. Like I mentioned before, they're failing to mention anything about the falling dollar for a reason - panic will set in and compound the problem.

Dropping the interest rates are destroying our dollar, period. They're trying to cushion the fall of the housing/credit crash, but all they're doing is making it worse. I don't know about you guys, but I'm definitely concerned bad times are coming. I can't imagine our economy at $10/gal. We're struggling enough as it is at $4.
Old     (njskier)      Join Date: Jul 2005       05-22-2008, 4:21 PM Reply   
Saw diesel today for $4.99/gal. Gas at the same station was $3.79. So why do the oil companies have to gough us on diesel which costs less to refine than gas??? It's crippling the trucking industry which in turn raises the price of everything. I know the government mandates that diesel has to be "low sulfur" now, but I cannot see how the refining cost is more than gas. Oh and thank the government for requiring ethanol to be blended with gasoline, so now many farmers have gone away from growing other crops so they can cash in on growing corn instead which raises the price of wheat, barley, soybeans and yes even hops used for making BEER! Cost more to feed animals now, so prices are up on milk, cheese, beef, etc.

Bottom line.........big oil is making big profits on diesel fuel alone.
Old     (rico80)      Join Date: Aug 2002       05-22-2008, 4:34 PM Reply   
It is not one thing or any other, it is a compilation of issues all inter-related. Drop in dollar = more speculation (buy commodities), Supply/Demand issues = speculation.

Gas in Europe has HUGE taxes placed on it by the government, to discourage its use since they were able to see a little better the problems of oil dependency. Those taxes were used to fund infrastructure = less gas used by more efficient transportation, Public Transportation = same thing, someone was actually thinking.
Erik, I'm sorry but you are just wrong, oil profits and taxes have nothing to do with it, that's just who people like to blame.
LP, the falling interest rates have hurt it, as did the ridiculously low interest rates held long after 9/11 that led to the housing mess, but the huge deficit that we are running has hurt the dollar as well. There is never just one issue, one issue can set off panic, speculation, etc. But sorry guys, there is no one person to blame.
Old     (boarditup)      Join Date: Jan 2004       05-22-2008, 6:33 PM Reply   
How about a windfall tax rebate for us?

From CBS in Chicago:

"The watchdog Civic Federation says that on a $4 gallon of gas, the total tax is 79.2 cents. That compares to 77 cents in Los Angeles and 65 cents in New York City.

"Every time the price of gas goes up, the tax goes up with it," said one motorist.

And that, of course, is exactly the point for the politicians. Gov. Blagojevich, for example, is counting on the high price of gasoline to bring at least an extra $220 million in the State Treasury in the fiscal year that begins this July. Most of that will be used to balance the way-out-of-balance budget."
Old     (rico80)      Join Date: Aug 2002       05-22-2008, 6:37 PM Reply   
Interesting, I'm pretty sure the fed fuel tax is 18.4 cents/ GALLON, so that one doesn't change. That was the one McCain/Clinton and Obama were arguing about. In Ohio at least, I'm pretty sure the state tax is fixed to the gallon as well. City taxes could very well be a % of sale and therefore go up as the price does.
Old     (absoluteboarder)      Join Date: Aug 2002       05-22-2008, 6:44 PM Reply   
look at the 10 year chart of oil.........Nortel and some other technology stocks come to mind.

It may keep going......but what goes straight up must come down......
Old     (rockledge)      Join Date: Sep 2005       05-22-2008, 7:20 PM Reply   
I agree with the above. At $130 and all the doomsday headlines, it is fair to say that we might be at the peak of a speculation bubble.

Start shorting now fellas . . .
Old     (colorider)      Join Date: Jun 2001       05-22-2008, 7:25 PM Reply   
here is some info to munch on.
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080521145247.aspx
Old     (sidekicknicholas)      Join Date: Mar 2007       05-22-2008, 8:12 PM Reply   
went up $.10 again today.
$3.97 in central wisco
Old     (hal2814)      Join Date: Feb 2006       05-22-2008, 8:27 PM Reply   
When has it not gone up at least a dime right before Memorial Day weekend?
Old     (tinytdubb)      Join Date: Jul 2007       05-22-2008, 8:28 PM Reply   
Today on my way to work I saw what I knew was coming......diesel $5.01
Old     (mucktoerider)      Join Date: Jan 2007       05-23-2008, 4:49 AM Reply   
This sucks! I really don't have anything more to say. We are just getting screwed and it's not going to end anytime soon. I like when people say it will change after November elections....yhea it will...for the worse! Auto sales are going to continue to drop (very bad for the economy...just remember auto sales are 2nd in major purchases to houses)..no one has money to trade in their SUV to get an expensive Prius. A Prius is no saving grace with the prices at the pump either. I bought groceries the other day and towed them home in my kids bike trailer behind my bicycle. Works great! I don't like the safety factors involved being a parent of two little kids..but I now have a 2008V Star 250 motorcycle. I was going to sell it because of the safety concerns...but now I have reconsidered with the price of gas going up. I just hope I don't become a statistic with all the cell phone users driving out there. Let me just say this....You are absolutely right for saying "You can not trust the media"...but we should also say..."We can not trust politicians either". Good Luck everyone and have a Great Memorial Day Weekend! All we can do is make the best of it.
Old     (wakemetoday)      Join Date: Mar 2006       05-23-2008, 5:37 AM Reply   
Back in 1999 when oil was somewhere around $20 a barrel, most--if not all--domestic drilling and exploration was stopped. As a result, the US became dependent on foreign oil and OPEC had us where they wanted. Now the US is paying the price. If the Democrats have their way, a "Windfall Profit Tax" will be added and NAFTA will be renegotiated--that means Canada will be allowed to sell oil to China instead of the US, so the problem will not get ant better. Until some of the restrictions on oil companies and refinery production is reduced and we all learn to conserve, the problem will be with us. India is building a large refinery which will help, but like George said, it's all up to the speculators at this point. I compare it to the technology bubble that occurred and everyone was day trading technology stocks. One day, this bubble will pop.
Old     (rico80)      Join Date: Aug 2002       05-23-2008, 7:07 AM Reply   
Exactly Ronnie, "windfall profit tax", renegotiating NAFTA, and the cap and trade carbon tax w/o including China, are all horrible policies. Besides having the opposite effect in every case than their intended goal, they would all further harm an already damaged economy.
Another factor that gets little attention is the global warming scare. Environmentalist action was the reason so little domestic drilling and exploration has been done, the reason refineries aren't being built, etc. Not that environmental protection isn't a good thing, just to say you can't have it both ways, cheap oil and a clean environment. The carbon tax is expected to add at least $1.50/gal, I think fear of oncoming action on global warming is another big factor driving up the speculation.
The bubble will pop, but not until speculator's fears about the falling dollar, higher costs for exploration, carbon taxes, unstability in oil producing regions are appeased. Not until supply catches back up with demand. The only way to do that is demand less (conserve more) or find new supplies (un-conventional sources, sustainable energy, realistic bio-fuels). None of those things will happen overnight so personally I don't expect the bubble to burst anytime soon.
Old     (mucktoerider)      Join Date: Jan 2007       05-23-2008, 7:09 AM Reply   
Very well said Ronnie. I absolutely hate it when libs come out and say...Oil is expensive because George and his family are big oil. That goes to show how Stupid people can really be. Drill Anwar Dam it!
Old     (mobv)      Join Date: Jun 2002       05-23-2008, 7:30 AM Reply   
Obama says we can't drive SUV's and eat 3 huge meals/day and then expect the rest of the world to like us. We must sacrafice our life style so the terriorist won't blow us up. Remember this when you vote.
Old     (mucktoerider)      Join Date: Jan 2007       05-23-2008, 8:13 AM Reply   
I wonder how many others caught that George. I flipped when I read that article when Obama opened his mouth. Sounds like Socialism!.. If Barack wants us to give up eating...Maybe that SOB needs to give up his smokes. For someone who is concerned with the environment, he sure is a huge hypacrit! Big ol smoke stack from what I heard.
Old     (timmy)      Join Date: Jul 2001       05-23-2008, 8:36 AM Reply   
pave more bike paths separate from the road and you won't hear me complaining.
Old     (rico80)      Join Date: Aug 2002       05-23-2008, 9:00 AM Reply   
"I wonder how many others caught that George. I flipped when I read that article when Obama opened his mouth. Sounds like Socialism!"

I hate to side with either party, there is good and bad with either. The things I disagree Democrats most on are usually socialist issues like welfare, social security, government health care, and other well intentioned but poorly thought through, often naive, and completely un-sustainable policies. I fail to see how this is a socialist issue though, or how it could cause anyone to "flip".
Obama is correct that many other countries hate us because of our extravagence. We are 6% of the global population using almost 25% of the oil, then complain when it is too expensive. Two thirds of the population is overweight, 1/3 obese, and millions of people around the world are starving. Would it shock anyone then that people with less would resent us, lose respect for us, hate us. Look at how many people resent the wealthy in this country, demanding that they pay more and more in taxes, condeming them for greed.
You can say they deserve it because they worked hard, whatever but that doesn't make people resent it less. That's exactly the way other countries feel about us. That is what Obama is saying.

The fact of it is there is a finite amount of resources for the global population, when we use more than our fair share, that means others have to do without. Now mandating that everyone should get an equal share regardless of how hard you worked is socialism. That's where democratic policy often fails it punishes people for hard work, intelligence, discipline and rewards people looking for a free ride. Republican policy fails in that it assumes that everyone has equal opportunity, they do not. It punishes people for things outside of their control, and rewards those who are already blessed.

(Message edited by rico80 on May 23, 2008)
Old     (sidekicknicholas)      Join Date: Mar 2007       05-23-2008, 9:14 AM Reply   
The only real way to get the country back on track is to have anyone run, Bill Clinton as vice pres..... whoever wins then gets removed from officed on the 3rd day living Bill to run things smoothly again.
Old     (rico80)      Join Date: Aug 2002       05-23-2008, 9:53 AM Reply   
You can't place all the blame on one, or give all the credit to the other. Changes don't happen overnight and each presidency largely reflects the last. Bush inheirited a whole list of ignored issues by Clinton, Middle East, oil dependency (Clinton killed many bills for more domestic production, alternative energy research that wasn't economical at the time). The next president will inheirit a whole list ignored by Bush, budget, environment, etc.
For all the praise of Clinton, the best thing he did for the economy was his "Welfare reform" a very republican policy. It just kills me that everyone wants to assign all blame and take all credit. Gas prices, economy, housing mess, you name it that's just the way society is.

(Message edited by rico80 on May 23, 2008)
Old     (mucktoerider)      Join Date: Jan 2007       05-23-2008, 10:08 AM Reply   
Im with Tim Kurtz. Pave more bike paths separate from the road. I would love to ride my bike to and from work. it would be quite a workout @35miles each way. But I would do it.
Old     (mucktoerider)      Join Date: Jan 2007       05-23-2008, 10:16 AM Reply   
Jb..response to your post. No fights....I see your point..we are big on food..big on cars..big on boats (ouch that one hurt) big on everything. I think it was his arrogant delivery that really boiled people. He should have pointed out his ideals the same way you just did. But I have not heard any different. The thing about the U.S. We are big on giving too. Just look at recently that none of the OPEC countries were giving any aid to China or the poor people that are ravished by that cyclone. We gave over a billion to help out. A healthy democracy will also be the most generous in tough times. But when Katrina hit Lousiana...we got nothing from any other country, except maybe GB and Canada. I know a lot of people already giving a lot less to charities and collection plates....unfortuantely thats where people cut first in desperate times. And tax hikes that ALL three front runners for the seat .....is not the answer. Hopefully concerned people like us will get that point across before November.
Old     (fly135)      Join Date: Jun 2004       05-23-2008, 10:31 AM Reply   
"I wonder how many others caught that George. I flipped when I read that article when Obama opened his mouth. Sounds like Socialism!.. If Barack wants us to give up eating...Maybe that SOB needs to give up his smokes. For someone who is concerned with the environment, he sure is a huge hypacrit! Big ol smoke stack from what I heard."

Yeah, people just don't like hearing the truth from their politicians. We all want to cling to the notion that we shouldn't be deprived of anything our heart desires. But times change. The dollar has sunk about %30 in relation to the euro. Cling to what you want but short of lashing out with military might, we are on the declining slope of social-economic world dominance.
Old     (mobv)      Join Date: Jun 2002       05-23-2008, 10:54 AM Reply   
John, So your saying we should stop driving SUV's, wakeboarding behind boats, and start paying 50 - 75% of our income to give to the poor in other countries through carbon offsets and/or carbon taxes. That we should not utilize our own resources to take care of Americans. Many of the poor countries are poor because of corrupt govenrments. We are headed towards destroying middle class so the rich "ruling few" can have anything they want and everyone else lives at near poverty levels. I have a small consulting practice, I pay close to 28% of every dollar in income taxes, 15% in self-employment tax (replacement for social security for self-employeed individuals) and then I pay $15000/year for medical insurance. I can't stand the thought of paying huge amounts more taxes to cover insurance for individuals who do not work or who do not invest in an education so they can get a job. Our national economic position is declining because of bad policy reguarding over taxation, failure to develop resources in ANWAR, the coast lines, preventing new oil and gas production, foolishly converting food supply into inefficient ethenol production. Most of what the politicians and media tell us is socialist propaganda.
Old     (fly135)      Join Date: Jun 2004       05-23-2008, 11:30 AM Reply   
"John, So your saying we should stop driving SUV's...."

Yeah, that's one thing I'm saying. I'm saying that the time has come to start building and buying more gas efficient vehicles. It's not a matter of choice, but one of necessity. Obama is just telling you like it is. Fuel costs affect the cost of everything. Everything will become more expensive and we are going to have to trim our indulgences.

There is another kind of tax we are all dealing with right now. It the tax of deflating currency value. Deficit spending by our govt and lack of confidence in the American economy by foreigners contribute to this tax. You can't solve these problems by ignoring them. Exporting American dollars overseas doesn't help. Our excessive consumption of fuel is diluting the value of our currency by sending it out of the country. Those huge prices on foreign produced barrels of oil is creating a huge sucking sound and that's your cash leaving the country. Money that circulates in the American economy creates tax revenue. When that cash leaves the American economy, you can say goodbye to the tax revenue it generates.
Old     (mucktoerider)      Join Date: Jan 2007       05-23-2008, 11:45 AM Reply   
john and george, you both have made good points. But John, we were driving Chevette's, Geo Metro's, Escorts before. They came..and they went. If we are greedy and driving SUV's....then the boats have to go too. 55mph national speed limit has been in the news for the last 5 days. It's coming back..don't complain when it does. that is driven by consumption and the return to ultra compact cars. Which small car prices have skyrocketed. A chevy cobalt cost more than my dodge Ram brand new in 2004. Something is really broken here. And it is moving too fast to stop. I like this quote that someone wrote about a blog concerning Barrack's comments of oil, food etc etc. consumption " I am tired of being told that being an american is bad. The world would be a lot worse off without us. We are not perfect but we certainly are not evil." This is the view point of the extreme terrorist...that we are evil..and it certainly sounds like that is what Barrack is saying too. I have an EXTREMELY BAD FEELING about this man if he gets into office. In a couple years I don't want to be the guy saying..I told you so!
Old     (fly135)      Join Date: Jun 2004       05-23-2008, 12:04 PM Reply   
"In a couple years I don't want to be the guy saying..I told you so!"

Then you'll know how Michael Moore feels.
Old     (ethan31)      Join Date: Jun 2007       05-23-2008, 12:43 PM Reply   
I just heard on the news that the top oil company's made 36 billion in the last 3 months.

Ya....there not gouging...
Old     (kinger)      Join Date: Jun 2007       05-23-2008, 12:46 PM Reply   
John,
You sound very educated but I don't think many of your points are correct. I would be interested to see where this lack of confidence for foreign countries is. Actually they have been some of this biggest contributers this year to bailing us out, they know how vital the American economy is to their countries own economy.
Second currency leaving the country doesn't weaken the dollar. The over availability of currency to Americans is what weakens the dollar. The less currency to borrow, then harder borrowing becomes, and thus less ability for people to leverage their money.
Finally saving on fuel just makes it more available for other countries, it is not going to lower demand unless the world does. In fact our consumption has been stag net over the past couple years it is just higher demand from other countries.
No disrespect intended to you or your views but the concept of your ideas are way off. Can't take everything Michael Moore says as fact.
Old     (fly135)      Join Date: Jun 2004       05-23-2008, 12:53 PM Reply   
Well Erik, I guess you're the new authority. No need to worry about the trade deficit or consumption of fuel. I feel much better now that an expert has taken that load off my mind.
Old     (rico80)      Join Date: Aug 2002       05-23-2008, 1:35 PM Reply   
Good article from WSJ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121150088368615927.html?mod=Review-Outlook-US about the effects of inflation. The article states that in 2002 one dollar = one euro. Now 1 dollar = .63 euro. If they had stayed equal, oil would cost $80 per barrel. This makes sense with other reports I've seen that the cost of oil has risen from $20 in 2000 to $70-80 today due to supply/demand, increased costs of producing, and oil being harder to find.

What I find interesting about this is that in 2000, price of gas was about $1/gall, oil about $20/barrel. Due to "normal" increases it has gone up 400% to $80/barrel as the fair price. The increase we have seen in gas has reflected this, going up to $4. But the price per barrel of oil is now $135, so the price of gas has not gone up proportionately with the price of oil.

Why the difference, does that mean that oil companies are actually taking less margin on the gas than they used to? Is that $135 price reflective of what we will see in the future $135/20 = X/$1, so gas will cost $6.75 when the barrels being purchased now are actually converted to gasoline. Well I guess part of it is that oil makes up only 70% of the cost of gas, the rest being refining, retailing, etc. So without inflation the price would be $2.80 per gal, if the increases were proportionate to oil it would be $4.725/gal for oil purchased at $135.

I don't know why this interests me, I just like putting all the pieces of the puzzle together to see the big picture.



(Message edited by rico80 on May 23, 2008)
Old     (fly135)      Join Date: Jun 2004       05-23-2008, 2:12 PM Reply   
New info on what's killing our economy....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoXgRtDysLY
Old     (sherman)      Join Date: Feb 2002       05-23-2008, 7:12 PM Reply   
gas prices might be coming down but diesel is $5:19 here
Old     (jt4040)      Join Date: Nov 2007       05-23-2008, 10:50 PM Reply   
Oil is only expensive because the dollar is week. If you took the Dollar vs. the Euro which in 2000 was 1 to 1, if it were that today Oil would be about $80/barrel.........weak dollar means cheap goods for people in other places, which is keeping some business strong that normally in this economic condition would be weak.
Old     (mkperceptions)      Join Date: Jan 2007       05-24-2008, 10:03 AM Reply   
dude you guys should but scooters they are rad. I sell them so now you should especially buy scooters :-) scooter-cafe.com
Old     (mucktoerider)      Join Date: Jan 2007       05-25-2008, 6:34 AM Reply   
political jab back at you John Anderson.......you think things are bad now. If Barrack wins in November. I garantee things will not be better, but much worse. On top of these gas prices (which will continue to climb.....we will have MUCH HIGHER TAXES). And the fact they are not hiding the facts gives me a pretty good idea that it will be really bad. Trust me...I live in a blue state. Our Governor has ruined this state to the point we have been the leader of unemployment...7.8% Barrack was in our state and said he would like to adopt and spread the 21st Century Job Fund to the rest of the nation. All that has done for us in Michigan is a big tax increase and higher gas prices. We are $4.29 a gallon for regular. So look at Detroit News....watch Michigan...thats whats ahead if we get Barrack as president.
Old     (wakemetoday)      Join Date: Mar 2006       05-25-2008, 6:50 AM Reply   
Well said, Scott!!!!
Old     (kinger)      Join Date: Jun 2007       05-27-2008, 6:40 AM Reply   
John,
Your welcome for the advice the first time is free, then i have to charge you.

Thanks
Old     (fly135)      Join Date: Jun 2004       05-27-2008, 8:28 AM Reply   
Scott, your total gas tax is only a few cents higher than it is in Florida. Yet roads in the north need more maintance than ours in Florida. Better keep looking for an excuse for your gas price because it doesn't look like the Job Fund is the culprit.

Gas ranges $3.80 and $4.00 here for regular.
Old     (fly135)      Join Date: Jun 2004       05-27-2008, 8:31 AM Reply   
BTW, if you can find a candidate that will say he'll get us out of Iraq and work to balance the federal budget, then I'll back him. Wait four years to see if I can win the war in Iraq doesn't work for me.
Old     (mkperceptions)      Join Date: Jan 2007       05-27-2008, 8:44 AM Reply   
I agree, I am a republican because I love our boats, our guns, and this country. BUt..... we had our chance in iraq and it did not work. I firmly believe we should have hit them hard from the get go and not let up but we didn't. We have loligaged enough over there. I do not want to wait 4 years to win a war.
Old     (misteve)      Join Date: Aug 2007       05-27-2008, 9:12 AM Reply   
Scott-- Don't blame the Dems for the high unemployment in Michigan, blame the Big 3 and them putting all their chips in SUVs and in cars with poor gas mileage, or just poor business practices.
Old     (psudy)      Join Date: Dec 2003       05-27-2008, 9:55 AM Reply   
"I firmly believe we should have hit them hard from the get go and not let up but we didn't."

Now ask yourself why we didn't. Was it because we didn't want to? Was it because the media was all over it and it might up set some bleeding heart liberals over here? Wars can not be fought like they use to be. Thank god Nazi Germany is behind us, because if it wasn't, you would be saying hail hitler, we would not be allowed to fight the hard fight.

(Message edited by psudy on May 27, 2008)
Old     (fly135)      Join Date: Jun 2004       05-27-2008, 10:49 AM Reply   
"Was it because we didn't want to? Was it because the media was all over it and it might up set some bleeding heart liberals over here?"

It's because we aren't mass murders.
Old     (psudy)      Join Date: Dec 2003       05-27-2008, 11:47 AM Reply   
You don't have to be a "mass murderer" to go in hard using force. If the good people of Iraq didn't let the enemy hide amoungst them, forcing them out into the open, that amount of force could be drastically reduced.
Old     (to_blind)      Join Date: Mar 2007       05-27-2008, 12:16 PM Reply   
sorting out all of this nonsense sounds like a job for Team America: World Police...anyone heard from those guys lately?

this is hands down the worst discussion on the entire internet. a whole bunch of wakeboarders who know next to nothing about economics/policy/etc.. stuck in a pissing match about why gas costs so much. Now, do I now why? Hell no. And i won't pretend too. Instead, focus on your passion (wakeboarding) and enjoy it any way you can while you still can. Less negative energy via a keyboard and more positive energy via a big slash into some butter conditions. Get it straight.
Old     (wakeguru)      Join Date: Feb 2003       05-27-2008, 12:19 PM Reply   
Great posts, jb(Rico80)!

I'd say you see the big picture very well....same goes for your observations about the presidency.

"You can't place all the blame on one, or give all the credit to the other. Changes don't happen overnight and each presidency largely reflects the last.......It just kills me that everyone wants to assign all blame and take all credit."

It's worth repeating....especially these days as the doom and gloom crowd expands.

< still proud to be an American.
Old     (mucktoerider)      Join Date: Jan 2007       05-28-2008, 4:43 AM Reply   
Scott, your total gas tax is only a few cents higher than it is in Florida. Yet roads in the north need more maintance than ours in Florida. Better keep looking for an excuse for your gas price because it doesn't look like the Job Fund is the culprit. Hey John....this is your Democrats hard at work...OUR GAS TAX DOESNT GO TO THE ROADS...IT GOES TO EDUCATION AND THE 21ST CENTURY JOB FUND. Look at Detroit news...bud. Michigan citizens want the gas tax dropped during the summer months....30 cents on each gallon right now because it goes by percentage. Our gas tax i tought went to the roads..but since we wanted it temporarily dropped our stupid governor said we cant...it will hurt teachers and the jobs fund...what the Hell....i thought the tax was for the roads. There is your Democrats...lying sack of crap. I lived here all my life...and it is the worst I have , or my parents have ever seen. And as for the Big 3.....They have been working on alternative energy for years. I agree they need to get it to the market sooner. They are just gun shy that they will invest, and then get burned. Remember GASOHOL from the late 70's and early 80's...they lost Millions on that fiasco. Chevy Volt...100 mpg's. I am working on that program right now at work. it's coming...and I do believe that might be better gas mileage than the Prius. So stop poo pooing the big 3 and maybe start believing in them again...it will spur the local economy across the US if you do. So for Michigan's plight...I DO blame the DEMS....Auto has some to do with it....but mostly it is manufacturing going over seas which goes back to Clinton signing the NAFTA agreement.......which opened up pandora's box for outsourcing all jobs..white collar too. And yes I know that NAFTA stands for North America Free Trade Agreement. But if you read the fine print (like on credit cards) you will easily determine that it started the job sourcing to china and india...money goes out and does not come back in..equals weaker dollar..and weaker economy. does not take a brain surgeon to figure that one out. So agree to disagree if you want...but I have been living in the DEM political atmosphere here in Michigan for almost 8 years...and it has been a one state recession downward spiral every since Granholm took office. No one ...not even most democrats like her anymore during her second term. And policies ...Barrack wants to widespread to the US....Hang on..it's going to be rough if we get him into office.

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