When Is the next economic correction happening?
 

when does everybody think the next economic correction is going to happen because this all can't last forever.

Technically we entered a recession a year ago, fastest decline and fastest recovery in history I believe.

Stocks are at an all time high, way over priced, they are not going up 300% like they did in the 90's, but there is a little room to run, 36,000 then a 5% correction.

It's been going two years longer than I thought it would so don't ask me, lol.

Inflation is already stating to hit some sectors hard but heard some interesting theories that we are not in for a traditional "crash" since big business is doing so well and there is a glut of cash just waiting to be spent by the middle and upper class that was not hit by the pandemic since their disposable spending was curtailed.

Not to say things are not about to go sideways...it will just be something outta left field vs what everyone is expecting!

All signs are by first or second quarter 2022 we are headed to a major issue. I have read and heard lots of financial analysts that are saying it will be worse then 2008 as it is long over due and we are coming out of a pandemic. I personally will be aggressive the rest of the year and dial things way back. As a contractor for the last 35 years and seen several corrections, this one is long over due. I will tell you there are two massive issue that are barely discussed. There is a massive labor shortage mostly caused by the way we have handled unemployment dollars. That is affecting growth and Constrcution (not to mention so many other businesses). This is the same thing that happened in the late 80's and 2008. Material costs are goign through the roof due to raw goods, lack of manpower, and inability to get it to the us. We have seen raw sheet metal go up 163% since beginning of the year. Steel vendors are saying about 40% by summer and we will be out of ALL sheet metal by July or August nationwide. I build stores for companies like Target, Walmart, Amazon, dutchBros, Starbucks, McDonalds, and most others- They are buildings fast as they can before the holiday season, but between materials and labor, prices are sky rocketing and projects are being delayed now. All of those signs will affect the overall. If corporate retail has to slow building due to raising costs and slower schedules, that will affect the country no matter what. I believe there is lots of cash, but with changes in the taxes and how they will handle estates, those with lots of money will be looking to hide it, not spend it. I suspect we are in for a rocky couples of years here coming. To me this feels identical to '08 except people are being paid to stay home, so unemployment can not go lower even though there is an insane amount of jobs. That will slow growth or put small businesses out of business long term

Wow you see Newsom's latest? By law has to get rid of $16 billions but going to do $100 billion and hope to not get recalled.

Per Newsom’s stimulus deal, two out of every three Californians will benefit from a new round of stimulus checks. Millions of poor and middle-class Californians would get tax rebates of up to $1,100. All households making up to $75,000 with at least one child, including immigrants in the country illegally who file taxes, would get an extra $500 payment. Individuals and households making between $30,000 and $75,000 a year would get a $600 payment.

inflation is the next concern IMO. believe it or not, there's a downside to letting the printing presses run 24 hours a day

There it is! Stocks finished the day above 36,000 and it finished down 5% yesterday, all within a month, Now what???

Uncertainty is bad for economic markets- they like stability. As I said awhile back, I expect things to be whacky until second quarter 2022. Right now there is still cheap money to be had. Taxation thats coming, supply chain issues, and labor will all still be an issue the first quarter. I have read lots of articles that state they think it will be late 2022 before it hits, but I expect uncertainty the first half of years which can take us either direction.

Would love to have your thoughts. I am a long term planner and generally been right in my lifetime, but this last two years has been unpredictable and that leads the next few to be even more unpredictable.

I am in Commerical construction and work with all the big chain stores. We are bidding 100+ jobs per month like we did in 2018/2019, so if I was blind I would say we are in for a big year. I know interest rates are going up for sure. I know that the stores we are in contract for now we can not get the material and they can not get their trademarked fixtures/signs, which means they can not open. Many of the projects we have on the books got pushed to first quarter because of that reason. Every vendor we have has major price increases scheduled for January.

I know I sold my 3 year old Chevy 2500 with 30K miles on it to a dealership for $61K, which is more then I paid for it. I know its cheaper to have a car built then to buy one at the dealership. I know money is still very cheap. I know my banker is dying to loan me money for anything because they are too cash heavy right now. It is a bizarre world we live in right now...